Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
